Champions League
Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction (14/10): score, probabilities
Man City1-2PredictedPSGResult: 2-4Correct
The model sees the teams as close: Manchester City 38%, draw 21%, Paris Saint-Germain 41%.
The likeliest score is 1-2 (7.6%), with expected goals (xG) of 1.92 – 2.01.
Both teams score in 75% of the simulations, three or more goals in 75%.
Final score: 2-4, the model had the outcome but not the score.
Predictions are for information only and are not betting advice.
After the match
Before kick-off the model gave the 2-4 score a 2% chance.
This result (Paris Saint-Germain win) had a 41% chance in the prediction.
Manchester City: model 1.92 xG, actual 2.57 xG.
Paris Saint-Germain: model 2.01 xG, actual 1.83 xG.
Chance of every scoreline
↓ Man CityPSG →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 3% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 5+ | 0.6% | 1% | 1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Solid outline: the predicted score; dashed: the final score. Rows: Man City goals; columns: PSG goals. The 5 row / column includes 5 or more. Statistical model estimate.
How the match could go
Paris Saint-Germain have a 50% chance to score first and 23% to win by two or more.
- Manchester City score first48%
- Paris Saint-Germain score first50%
- Manchester City win by 2 or more20%
- Paris Saint-Germain win by 2 or more23%
- Three or more goals75%
- One goal or fewer9%
- 0-03%
Chance to score, player by player
Erling Haaland is the likeliest scorer of the match (44%).
Man City
Erling Haaland6 of the team's 20 league goals44%
Rayan Cherki4 of the team's 20 league goals32%
Antoine Semenyo2 of the team's 20 league goals17%
Estimate: the player's share of his team's goals times the team's expected goals in this match; expected starters only.
The two teams in the tableChampions League
Manchester City: position 8, 3 points from 1 games; Paris Saint-Germain: position 1, 3 points from 1 games.
Man CityPSG 
Last 5 matches
Manchester City: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost, 16 scored and 3 conceded.
Paris Saint-Germain: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, 13 scored and 5 conceded.
Man City
- WinLiverpoolAway3-0
- WinSunderlandHome5-3
- WinNorwich CityHome5-0
- WinManchester UnitedAway1-0
- WinFC PortoAway2-0
PSG
- WinLe MansHome3-1
- WinMarseilleAway2-1
- WinBrestAway1-0
- WinSlovan BratislavaHome6-1
- LossMonacoHome1-2
Expected line-ups
Manchester City are likely to line up in a 4-1-4-1, average age 25.9. Coach: Enzo Maresca.
Paris Saint-Germain are likely to line up in a 4-3-3, average age 25.4. Coach: Luis Enrique.
Man City4-1-4-1
1 Donnarumma
27 Nunes
3 Dias
6 Guéhi
33 O'Reilly
5 Anderson
7 Ndiaye10 Cherki
17 Fernández42 Semenyo9 Haaland- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Season rating 7.35
- 27 Matheus Nunes – Season rating 7.07
- 3 Rúben Dias – Season rating 7.13
- 6 Marc Guéhi – Season rating 7.81
- 33 Nico O'Reilly – Season rating 6.83
- 5 Elliot Anderson – Season rating 7.62
- 7 Iliman Ndiaye – Season rating 7.34
- 10 Rayan Cherki – Season rating 7.92
- 17 Enzo Fernández – Season rating 7.28
- 42 Antoine Semenyo – Season rating 7.77
- 9 Erling Haaland – Season rating 7.98
PSG4-3-3
39 Safonov
2 Hakimi
6 Zabarnyi
21 Hernández
12 Digne
87 Neves
4 Beraldo
27 Fernández
11 Akliouche
9 Torres
22 Godts- 39 Matvey Safonov – Season rating 6.58
- 2 Achraf Hakimi – Season rating 6.96
- 6 Ilya Zabarnyi – Season rating –
- 21 Lucas Hernández – Season rating 6.83
- 12 Lucas Digne – Season rating 6.31
- 87 João Neves – Season rating 7.4
- 4 Lucas Beraldo – Season rating 6.49
- 27 Dro Fernández – Season rating 6.23
- 11 Maghnes Akliouche – Season rating 6.82
- 9 Ferrán Torres – Season rating 7.21
- 22 Mika Godts – Season rating 6.82
Based on each team's last starting XI; the number on each player is the season rating.
Players to watch
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is top scorer (6), Antoine Semenyo has the most assists (3), Rayan Cherki has the best average rating (8.04).
For Paris Saint-Germain, Ferrán Torres is top scorer (4), Fabián Ruiz has the most assists (2), Vítinha has the best average rating (7.71).
Man City
- Erling HaalandGoals6
- Antoine SemenyoAssists3
- Rayan CherkiAverage rating8.04
PSG
- Ferrán TorresGoals4
Fabián RuizAssists2
VítinhaAverage rating7.71
League numbers this season.