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Premier League

Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction (24/10): score, probabilities

Aston Villa1-2PredictedMan City
Aston Villa 17%Draw 20%Man City 64%
Expected goals: 1.03 – 2.18Confidence: HighGenerated 23/10/2026, 15:30

Result: 2-1Wrong

Our statistical model favours Manchester City: 64% to win, 20% for a draw and 17% for Aston Villa.

The likeliest score is 1-2 (9.9%), with expected goals (xG) of 1.03 – 2.18.

Both teams score in 58% of the simulations, three or more goals in 62%.

Final score: 2-1, the model had the wrong outcome.

Predictions are for information only and are not betting advice.

After the match

Before kick-off the model gave the 2-1 score a 5% chance.

This result (Aston Villa win) had a 16% chance in the prediction.

Aston Villa: model 1.03 xG, actual 0.61 xG.

Manchester City: model 2.18 xG, actual 1.56 xG.

Chance of every scoreline

↓ Aston VillaMan City →

Aston Villa – Man City
012345+
05%8%10%7%4%3%
13%10%10%7%4%3%
22%5%5%4%2%1%
30.7%2%2%1%0.7%0.5%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
5+0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0%0%

Solid outline: the predicted score; dashed: the final score. Rows: Aston Villa goals; columns: Man City goals. The 5 row / column includes 5 or more. Statistical model estimate.

How the match could go

Manchester City have a 65% chance to score first and 40% to win by two or more.

  • Aston Villa score first31%
  • Manchester City score first65%
  • Aston Villa win by 2 or more6%
  • Manchester City win by 2 or more40%
  • Three or more goals62%
  • One goal or fewer16%
  • 0-05%

Chance to score, player by player

Erling Haaland is the likeliest scorer of the match (60%).

Aston Villa

  • Johan Manzambi2 of the team's 7 league goals25%
  • Nicolas Jackson2 of the team's 7 league goals25%
  • Alysson Edward1 of the team's 7 league goals14%

Man City

Estimate: the player's share of his team's goals times the team's expected goals in this match; expected starters only.

The two teams in the tablePremier League

Aston Villa: position 12, 8 points from 7 games; Manchester City: position 1, 21 points from 7 games.

Aston VillaMan City
  • 8Points21
  • 1.00Goals per game2.71
  • 1.57Conceded per game1.00

Last 5 matches

Aston Villa: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost, 15 scored and 4 conceded.

Manchester City: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, 18 scored and 10 conceded.

Aston Villa

  • WinVikingHome3-1
  • WinNewcastle UnitedAway1-0
  • WinFenerbahçeHome6-0
  • DrawBrentfordHome2-2
  • WinSevillaAway3-1

Man City

  • WinAEK AthensHome5-1
  • WinIpswich TownHome3-2
  • LossParis Saint-GermainHome2-4
  • WinLiverpoolAway3-0
  • WinSunderlandHome5-3

Expected line-ups

Aston Villa are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 27. Coach: Unai Emery.

Manchester City are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 26.2. Coach: Enzo Maresca.

Aston Villa4-2-3-1

  • 1 Zion Suzuki – Season rating 7.06
  • 2 Matty Cash – Season rating 6.27
  • 3 Victor Nilsson Lindelöf – Season rating 6.06
  • 5 Tyrone Mings – Season rating 6.67
  • 29 Aaron Wan-Bissaka – Season rating 6.69
  • 8 Boubacar Kamara – Season rating 6.93
  • 35 João Gomes – Season rating 5.97
  • 47 Alysson Edward – Season rating 6.44
  • 44 Johan Manzambi – Season rating 7.54
  • 10 Emiliano Buendía – Season rating 6.83
  • 11 Nicolas Jackson – Season rating 6.99

Man City4-2-3-1

  • 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Season rating 7.51
  • 27 Matheus Nunes – Season rating 7.16
  • 3 Rúben Dias – Season rating 7.14
  • 6 Marc Guéhi – Season rating 7.73
  • 33 Nico O'Reilly – Season rating 6.83
  • 8 Mateo Kovačić – Season rating 6.24
  • 32 Ayyoub Bouaddi – Season rating 6.48
  • 7 Iliman Ndiaye – Season rating 7.19
  • 47 Phil Foden – Season rating 6.78
  • 11 Jérémy Doku – Season rating 7.19
  • 9 Erling Haaland – Season rating 7.93

Based on each team's last starting XI; the number on each player is the season rating.

Players to watch

For Aston Villa, Johan Manzambi is top scorer (2), Johan Manzambi has the most assists (2), Johan Manzambi has the best average rating (7.66).

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is top scorer (8), Antoine Semenyo has the most assists (3), Erling Haaland has the best average rating (8.08).

Aston Villa

  • Johan ManzambiGoals2
  • Johan ManzambiAssists2
  • Johan ManzambiAverage rating7.66

Man City

League numbers this season.