Premier League
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town prediction (17/10): score, probabilities
Man City2-1PredictedIpswich Town
Result: 3-2Correct
Our statistical model favours Manchester City: 76% to win, 14% for a draw and 10% for Ipswich Town.
The likeliest score is 2-1 (8.5%), with expected goals (xG) of 2.92 – 1.01.
Both teams score in 61% of the simulations, three or more goals in 75%.
Final score: 3-2, the model had the outcome but not the score.
Predictions are for information only and are not betting advice.
After the match
Before kick-off the model gave the 3-2 score a 4% chance.
This result (Manchester City win) had a 76% chance in the prediction.
Manchester City: model 2.92 xG, actual 3.53 xG.
Ipswich Town: model 1.01 xG, actual 1.66 xG.
Chance of every scoreline
↓ Man CityIpswich Town →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5+ | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Solid outline: the predicted score; dashed: the final score. Rows: Man City goals; columns: Ipswich Town goals. The 5 row / column includes 5 or more. Statistical model estimate.
How the match could go
Manchester City have a 73% chance to score first and 57% to win by two or more.
- Manchester City score first73%
- Ipswich Town score first25%
- Manchester City win by 2 or more57%
- Ipswich Town win by 2 or more3%
- Three or more goals75%
- One goal or fewer9%
- 0-02%
Chance to score, player by player
Erling Haaland is the likeliest scorer of the match (67%).
Man City
Erling Haaland6 of the team's 16 league goals67%
Rayan Cherki4 of the team's 16 league goals52%
Antoine Semenyo2 of the team's 16 league goals31%
Ipswich Town
Emersonn2 of the team's 9 league goals20%
Leif Davis2 of the team's 9 league goals20%
Abdoul Ouattara1 of the team's 9 league goals11%
Estimate: the player's share of his team's goals times the team's expected goals in this match; expected starters only.
The two teams in the tablePremier League
Manchester City: position 1, 18 points from 6 games; Ipswich Town: position 10, 9 points from 6 games.
Man CityIpswich Town Last 5 matches
Manchester City: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, 16 scored and 7 conceded.
Ipswich Town: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost, 7 scored and 10 conceded.
Man City
- LossParis Saint-GermainHome2-4
- WinLiverpoolAway3-0
- WinSunderlandHome5-3
- WinNorwich CityHome5-0
- WinManchester UnitedAway1-0
Ipswich Town
- WinFulhamHome2-1
- LossEvertonAway0-1
- LossArsenalHome2-4
- WinCrystal PalaceAway3-2
- LossLiverpoolHome0-2
Expected line-ups
Manchester City are likely to line up in a 4-1-4-1, average age 25.9. Coach: Enzo Maresca.
Ipswich Town are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 26.5. Coach: Gary O'Neil.
Man City4-1-4-1
1 Donnarumma
27 Nunes
3 Dias
6 Guéhi
33 O'Reilly
5 Anderson
7 Ndiaye10 Cherki
17 Fernández42 Semenyo9 Haaland- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Season rating 7.35
- 27 Matheus Nunes – Season rating 7.07
- 3 Rúben Dias – Season rating 7.13
- 6 Marc Guéhi – Season rating 7.81
- 33 Nico O'Reilly – Season rating 6.83
- 5 Elliot Anderson – Season rating 7.62
- 7 Iliman Ndiaye – Season rating 7.34
- 10 Rayan Cherki – Season rating 7.92
- 17 Enzo Fernández – Season rating 7.28
- 42 Antoine Semenyo – Season rating 7.77
- 9 Erling Haaland – Season rating 7.98
Ipswich Town4-2-3-1
28 Walton42 Ouattara
6 Diop
26 O'Shea3 Davis
12 Florentino
23 Lukić
38 Maeda
10 Enciso
11 Philogene-Bidace19 Emersonn- 28 Christian Walton – Season rating 6.63
- 42 Abdoul Ouattara – Season rating 6.59
- 6 Issa Diop – Season rating 6.81
- 26 Dara O'Shea – Season rating 6.77
- 3 Leif Davis – Season rating 6.79
- 12 Florentino – Season rating 6.21
- 23 Saša Lukić – Season rating 6.85
- 38 Daizen Maeda – Season rating 6.25
- 10 Julio Enciso – Season rating 7.05
- 11 Jaden Philogene-Bidace – Season rating 6.15
- 19 Emersonn – Season rating 6.88
Based on each team's last starting XI; the number on each player is the season rating.
Players to watch
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is top scorer (6), Antoine Semenyo has the most assists (3), Rayan Cherki has the best average rating (8.04).
For Ipswich Town, Emersonn is top scorer (2), Julio Enciso has the most assists (2), Exequiel Palacios has the best average rating (7.06).
Man City
- Erling HaalandGoals6
- Antoine SemenyoAssists3
- Rayan CherkiAverage rating8.04
Ipswich Town
- EmersonnGoals2
- Julio EncisoAssists2
Exequiel PalaciosAverage rating7.06
League numbers this season.