Champions League
Manchester City vs AEK Athens prediction (20/10): score, probabilities
Man City2-1PredictedAEK Athens
Result: 5-1Correct
Our statistical model favours Manchester City: 49% to win, 21% for a draw and 30% for AEK Athens.
The likeliest score is 2-1 (8.9%), with expected goals (xG) of 2.03 – 1.55.
Both teams score in 69% of the simulations, three or more goals in 69%.
Final score: 5-1, the model had the outcome but not the score.
Predictions are for information only and are not betting advice.
After the match
Before kick-off the model gave the 5-1 score a 1% chance.
This result (Manchester City win) had a 48% chance in the prediction.
Manchester City: model 2.03 xG, actual 2.74 xG.
AEK Athens: model 1.55 xG, actual 1.17 xG.
Chance of every scoreline
↓ Man CityAEK Athens →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 5+ | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Solid outline: the predicted score; dashed: the final score. Rows: Man City goals; columns: AEK Athens goals. The 5 row / column includes 5 or more. Statistical model estimate.
How the match could go
Manchester City have a 55% chance to score first and 28% to win by two or more.
- Manchester City score first55%
- AEK Athens score first42%
- Manchester City win by 2 or more28%
- AEK Athens win by 2 or more14%
- Three or more goals69%
- One goal or fewer12%
- 0-03%
Chance to score, player by player
Erling Haaland is the likeliest scorer of the match (56%).
Man City
Erling Haaland8 of the team's 20 league goals56%
Estimate: the player's share of his team's goals times the team's expected goals in this match; expected starters only.
The two teams in the tableChampions League
Manchester City: position 17, 3 points from 2 games; AEK Athens: position 20, 3 points from 2 games.
Man CityAEK Athens Last 5 matches
Manchester City: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, 18 scored and 9 conceded.
AEK Athens: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost, 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Man City
- WinIpswich TownHome3-2
- LossParis Saint-GermainHome2-4
- WinLiverpoolAway3-0
- WinSunderlandHome5-3
- WinNorwich CityHome5-0
AEK Athens
- LossShakhtar DonetskAway1-3
- WinOFI CreteHome3-0
- WinNFC VolosAway2-1
- WinPanserraikos FCHome8-1
- DrawAsteras TripolisAway1-1
Expected line-ups
Manchester City are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 26.2. Coach: Enzo Maresca.
AEK Athens are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 29. Coach: Marko Nikolić.
Man City4-2-3-1
1 Donnarumma
27 Nunes
3 Dias
6 Guéhi
33 O'Reilly
8 Kovačić
32 Bouaddi
7 Ndiaye
47 Foden
11 Doku9 Haaland- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Season rating 7.51
- 27 Matheus Nunes – Season rating 7.16
- 3 Rúben Dias – Season rating 7.14
- 6 Marc Guéhi – Season rating 7.73
- 33 Nico O'Reilly – Season rating 6.83
- 8 Mateo Kovačić – Season rating 6.24
- 32 Ayyoub Bouaddi – Season rating 6.48
- 7 Iliman Ndiaye – Season rating 7.19
- 47 Phil Foden – Season rating 6.78
- 11 Jérémy Doku – Season rating 7.19
- 9 Erling Haaland – Season rating 7.93
AEK Athens4-2-3-1
91 Brignoli
12 Rota
2 Moukoudi
44 Relvas
3 Pilios
6 Kairinen
18 Marin
14 Majer
11 Koïta
7 Kutesa
9 Jović- 91 Alberto Brignoli – Season rating 7.68
- 12 Lazaros Rota – Season rating 7.2
- 2 Harold Moukoudi – Season rating 6.81
- 44 Filipe Relvas – Season rating 7.48
- 3 Stavros Pilios – Season rating 7.65
- 6 Kaan Kairinen – Season rating 6.31
- 18 Răzvan Marin – Season rating 7.71
- 14 Lovro Majer – Season rating 7.51
- 11 Aboubakary Koïta – Season rating 6.7
- 7 Dereck Kutesa – Season rating 6.57
- 9 Luka Jović – Season rating 7.5
Based on each team's last starting XI; the number on each player is the season rating.
Players to watch
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is top scorer (8), Antoine Semenyo has the most assists (3), Erling Haaland has the best average rating (8.08).
For AEK Athens, Barnabás Varga is top scorer (4), Răzvan Marin has the most assists (4), Răzvan Marin has the best average rating (7.87).
Man City
- Erling HaalandGoals8
Antoine SemenyoAssists3- Erling HaalandAverage rating8.08
AEK Athens
Barnabás VargaGoals4- Răzvan MarinAssists4
- Răzvan MarinAverage rating7.87
League numbers this season.