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Champions League

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction (04/11): score, probabilities

RB Leipzig1-2PredictedMan City
RB Leipzig 18%Draw 20%Man City 63%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 2.52Confidence: HighGenerated 04/11/2026, 14:30

Result: 2-3Correct

Our statistical model favours Manchester City: 63% to win, 20% for a draw and 18% for RB Leipzig.

The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), with expected goals (xG) of 1.32 – 2.52.

Both teams score in 68% of the simulations, three or more goals in 74%.

Final score: 2-3, the model had the outcome but not the score.

Predictions are for information only and are not betting advice.

After the match

Before kick-off the model gave the 2-3 score a 5% chance.

This result (Manchester City win) had a 63% chance in the prediction.

RB Leipzig: model 1.32 xG, actual 0.87 xG.

Manchester City: model 2.52 xG, actual 2.23 xG.

Chance of every scoreline

↓ RB LeipzigMan City →

RB Leipzig – Man City
012345+
03%5%7%6%4%3%
12%8%9%8%5%4%
22%5%6%5%3%3%
30.8%2%3%2%1%1%
40.3%0.7%0.9%0.7%0.5%0.4%
5+0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%

Solid outline: the predicted score; dashed: the final score. Rows: RB Leipzig goals; columns: Man City goals. The 5 row / column includes 5 or more. Statistical model estimate.

How the match could go

Manchester City have a 64% chance to score first and 42% to win by two or more.

  • RB Leipzig score first34%
  • Manchester City score first64%
  • RB Leipzig win by 2 or more7%
  • Manchester City win by 2 or more42%
  • Three or more goals74%
  • One goal or fewer10%
  • 0-03%

Chance to score, player by player

Erling Haaland is the likeliest scorer of the match (68%).

Man City

Estimate: the player's share of his team's goals times the team's expected goals in this match; expected starters only.

The two teams in the tableChampions League

RB Leipzig: position 28, 3 points from 3 games; Manchester City: position 12, 6 points from 3 games.

RB LeipzigMan City
  • 3Points6
  • 1.00Goals per game3.00
  • 2.67Conceded per game1.67

Last 5 matches

RB Leipzig: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost, 10 scored and 11 conceded.

Manchester City: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, 11 scored and 8 conceded.

RB Leipzig

  • WinSchalke 04Away2-0
  • WinRW EssenAway2-1
  • WinElversbergHome4-0
  • LossReal MadridAway1-4
  • LossBayern MünchenAway1-6

Man City

  • LossBrighton and Hove AlbionHome0-1
  • DrawBrighton and Hove AlbionHome2-2
  • LossAston VillaAway1-2
  • WinAEK AthensHome5-1
  • WinIpswich TownHome3-2

Expected line-ups

RB Leipzig are likely to line up in a 4-5-1, average age 25.5. Coach: Martín Demichelis.

Manchester City are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1, average age 25.4. Coach: Enzo Maresca.

RB Leipzig4-5-1

  • 26 Maarten Vandevoordt – Season rating 7.36
  • 39 Benjamin Henrichs – Season rating 7.02
  • 4 Willi Orbán – Season rating 7.13
  • 23 Castello Lukeba – Season rating 6.95
  • 22 David Raum – Season rating 6.97
  • 10 Brajan Gruda – Season rating 7.4
  • 20 Rocco Reitz – Season rating 6.61
  • 21 Neil El Aynaoui – Season rating 7.15
  • 6 Ezechiel Banzuzi – Season rating 7.23
  • 7 Antonio Nusa – Season rating 7.88
  • 40 Rômulo – Season rating 7.26

Man City4-2-3-1

  • 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma – Season rating 6.94
  • 27 Matheus Nunes – Season rating 7.2
  • 45 Abdukodir Khusanov – Season rating 7.41
  • 3 Rúben Dias – Season rating 7.04
  • 24 Joško Gvardiol – Season rating 7.42
  • 32 Ayyoub Bouaddi – Season rating 6.86
  • 5 Elliot Anderson – Season rating 7.6
  • 7 Iliman Ndiaye – Season rating 7.36
  • 17 Enzo Fernández – Season rating 7.12
  • 11 Jérémy Doku – Season rating 7.4
  • 9 Erling Haaland – Season rating 8

Based on each team's last starting XI; the number on each player is the season rating.

Players to watch

For RB Leipzig, Christopher Nkunku is top scorer (4), Antonio Nusa has the most assists (6), Antonio Nusa has the best average rating (8.01).

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is top scorer (9), Antoine Semenyo has the most assists (3), Erling Haaland has the best average rating (7.81).

RB Leipzig

  • Christopher NkunkuGoals4
  • Antonio NusaAssists6
  • Antonio NusaAverage rating8.01

Man City

League numbers this season.